The new science of prediction

Date & time

6–7.30pm 16 August 2012


Finkel Theatre, John Curtain School of Medical Research, Building 131, Garron Road, Acton, ACT


Dr Eugene Dubossarsky

Politicians, academics, journalists, pundits and special interest groups are all in the business of telling us what to do, and what might happen if we don't. Prediction is a vital part of all decision making, and implicit in any discussion of the future. But are the people we are listening to predicting well? How do we know? Can we do better? And is the better pundit an average Australian with more sense than publicity? Collective forecasting techniques open the way to a range of ways to read the future with precision and realism, and to identify people with a knack for the future. These methods combine 'wisdom of crowds' techniques to fuse the insight of many individuals, while using scientific rigour and measurement to find which of them is more accurate. It also provides a 'group forecast', which can be assessed like any player. These methods also support better decisions, and a clearer idea of what a group believes is the best course of action. Usually, they are right. This presentation will also provide results from the Australian Institute of Professional Intelligence Officers Collective Forecasting Competition, a currently running live, cross Tasman exercise predicting matters of interest to Australia. Along with results, the presentation will provide a view of the future, as expressed in the current round of the competition. Speaker details: Dr Eugene Dubossarsky is a leader in the data analytics industry in Australia, a founder of the Institute of Analytics Professionals of Australia and has decades of experience in predictive modelling and forecasting methods. He is also a founder of Analyst First, an international movement, methodology and think tank in the Analytics space. His main current role is as a partner in Presciient, an analytics consulting, technology and training company, serving business, government and the not-for-profit sector. He is also a partner and Chief Scientist of System II, an online Collective Forecasting technology and is a Director on the Industry Advisory Board of the School of Mathematics, University of New South Wales.

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